The Flu

[kuju]

I know it's a serious issue... but does anyone else think that things are getting a little out of hand with the fear mongering about the flu? All I hear about is how it's going to be a pandemic, so many people dying, we're all out of Tamiflu (the vaccine), and now some consider restricting travel to prevent people passing it on... I mean, it jsut seems blown out of proportion. And this is coming from ME, a prospective nurse living in Toronto, the SARS capital of the western hemisphere.

I'm just sick of hearing about it... we should prepare, yes. We should be concerned, yes. But I think people need to stop panicking about it.

[BabyDiva]

I watched a thing on the History Channel about the Black Plague. Right after it was an special "The Next Plague" which gave ONE example of the worst case scenario. Pretty scary. In 6 weeks this scenario predicted over a million deaths in the US alone.


Considering that it's only been found in humans who work directly with poultry and has not YET mutated to be transferred by human-to-human contact...I'm not too worried. Granted, I'm more obessed with the fact that I've been sick for over a month and fatigue and vertigo finally made me go to my doctor.

We're not out of Tamiflu, and there is at least one other company that is now going to be mass producing it. Granted, there's no proof that Tamiflu is going to offer ANY immunity against this one.

[Wolf]

Fear sells.

[BabyDiva]

Apparently the Spanish Flu which killed the most people out of the 20th century pandemics was an avian flu.

I'm trying to figure out what's wrong with me, and ran across that little kernal of info. So, I guess since it's Type A and they have more variety (get more different rather than more similar - like Types B and C) among the strains. It is highly possible that it could form another pandemic. We know what catastrophe type can cause across the world. That was when travel was LESS popular. Apparently more people in WWI were hospitalized due to this flu (grippe) than due to wounds.

Very interesting. At least they're getting a head start with Tamiflu! Couldn't hurt to have a nice stock on hand anyway.

[dtbmnec]

I don't really worry about it...*shrugs* I get my flu shot every year and that's that...if I get sick from the flu anyway? meh so I'm in bed with my bf to take care of me for a week or so....*shrugs* no biggie...

Megan

[vampbarbie]

Yeah totally overblown. We didn't all get SARS so I highly doubt we're all going to get bird flu

[Lone Wolf]

Tamiflu aint a vaccine, but an antiviral agent.
I don't really know how effective it is against the avian-human flu.

I'm into biology and stuff, but I can't really assess the risks here.
Panicking's never good, though. I wonder what happens if there are some cases in a big western city... Maybe stuff like in New Orleans is gonna happen (gigantic traffic jams, followed by pillaging...).

[Wolf]

Yeah totally overblown. We didn't all get SARS so I highly doubt we're all going to get bird flu

I went to Niagara Falls and laughed my ass off at all the (stupid) tourists wearing masks. OH NOES! ONLY A 99% CHANCE OF SURVIVAL, INCLUDING THE YOUNG AND ELDERLY! SHIT!

[BabyDiva]

dtb - you do realize that the flu (throwing up) and influenza are different, right?



The panic-factor is bad. Just because countries are getting ready doesn't mean it's "on it's way." It hasn't even been found going human to human yet...and in poultry to human it's not really THAT bad yet. Weren't there more problems from Mad Cow than this? (At least so far?) Dang, remember mad cow? I'd never seen so many new "vegetarians" at my high school...man, I feel old now!!

[CanisLupusClaws]

Actually, the panic facter is unfortunately warranted. I live near Baltimore Maryland and my father is the Director of The Intensive Care Unit at Johns Hopkins Hospital. However his specialty is in Pulmonary Intensive Care. Pulmonary=Lungs in laymans terms. I actually overheard a conversation between my parents in which my father said to my mother that the first time she hears about a Human case of Avian Flu in the U.S., she is to go out and stock up on canned food, water, etc. I talked to him about it later and he says that if it mutates to be infectious towards humans, hospitals will be overwhelmed and we will be looking at 1918 all over again. The infection rate will be rediculous. I think this was mentioned above but they did just discover that the 1918 Flu Virus was a strain of Avian Flu.

[Wolf]

dtb - you do realize that the flu (throwing up) and influenza are different, right?

I've only ever heard it ("The Flu") refer to a specific set of yearly-mutating viruses, for which we get free vaccines here. (Going to get mine soon.)

[Wolf]

Actually, the panic facter is unfortunately warranted.

No.

Just no.

If everyone is calm, controlled, and rational, the disease - nearly any disease - can be contained. If everybody panics, and goes out to buy all the canned food, generators, and water, chaos will ensue. Panic isn't warranted, and it never does anyone good.

[BabyDiva]

Basically, the avian flu will need time to mutate. Chances are that with the newer medicine and technology, the death toll will not be as bad. Influenza outbreaks have dropped in their death tolls recently because of the advances we've made.

Aside from that, since it's an airborne disease, the worst thing would be to go out and get into a crowded store.

Even though he's a pulmonary specialist, he's working off the worst case scenario like the history channel did. The more likely case is it will spread, but the death toll will be no where near the 1918 pandemic. Containment and quick treatment will be a LOT more prevalent in all nations.


Wolf - what some people (predominantly in the US) have come to call "the flu" is typically a viral infection accompanied by fever, chills, and vomiting. That's just the common term now, which causes problems when they hear "avian flu" and "flu shot" because they think the vaccine is going to prevent the throwing up and get miffed when they catch that virus.
Most people in this country haven't realizes that "avian flu" and the "flu shots" are referring to the respiratory infection. It causes a lot of panic and confusion when it is just a huge misunderstanding.

[Enani]

god, you people have no idea what you're talking about

no time is needed to mutate, it only takes one virus that mutates in one person to start spreading it from human to human, and considering how easy it is to travel these days, this can spread all over the world very fast, no matter how calm people are.
the influenza pandemic in 1918 killed about 60 million world wide, in a time when it took much longer to travel.
also, our technology doesn't make us invulnerable.
last, but most deliciously ironic, the drug everyone's stocking up, tamiflu, is useless against this bird flu because this particular virus has already become resistant to tamiflu, with reports of drug-resistant strains in vietnam and japan.
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/health/mg18625023.100

[BabyDiva]

There's nothing that can be done to stop or prevent this one...panic does no good.

The main point is it STARTS spreading. There are already watches on those countries affected.

At any rate, panic does no good. Currently there is no remedy for it. They're working on it, but can do nothing until the virus mutates. Then they can create a vaccine. Other than that, symptomatic treatment.

One thing people need to remember is that infection does not equal death.

[Enani]

One thing people need to remember is that infection does not equal death.

you're right. it only means death for the young healthy and 50% of the people infected...

[water nymph]

Commas would have made your last post a tad more inderstandable, Enani. I got it, but after a couple reads.

I don't know much about diseases etc but I wouldn't go so far as to say that infection=death. For the most part we can at least slow most diseases (of course there are exceptions) and I would think that we would be able to treat avian flu in whatever form it came in effectively. Again, I don't know much about diseases but I would like to think that that is the case here.

Regardless of the situation, panic does not help. Panicking means people do stupid things, crazy things, things they would never see themselves doing. If avian flu were to start spreading like wild fire it would be better to stay calm so that thinsg could proceed in an orderly fashion. Will that happpen? Most likely not; the news here is waaaaaay too big on fear mongering and we are high strung people.

[Enani]

OK, I have a question for all those that think "oh, sure, we just wait for it to mutate and then we'll ask the virus fairy for a treatment"

how long have we been looking for a cure for HIV? for cancer? for Hepatitis? Herper? any other disease that's been affecting us for a long long time yet there's no cure for it?

treatments for viruses don't grow on trees. Real-life is not star trek, we don't enter a sample in some machine and by the end of the episode the doctor comes up with a cure, and if he doesn't, it's cause it's a 2-part episode.

real-life's a bitch and if Tamiflu or other existing drugs don't work, or are not made in sufficient quantity (*) we will NOT simply find a cure once it starts spreading.


(*) Tamiflu is made from a rare plant, and it's being stocked up in rich nations, while most of the cases so far are in poor asian countries. it doesn't matter that you have all the anti-virals if every other country around you is filled with sick people. it WILL reach north america, and you will NEVER get enough drugs for everyone here, and the virus is already showing signs of resistance to Tamiflu in asia.

[Wolf]

Enani - That is still no reason to panic.

Don't confuse my apathy with ignorance. I know that this, or some other disease, will wipe out a good percentage of humanity, and there's very little we can do to stop it. I choose to not be concerned.

[BabyDiva]

"OK, I have a question for all those that think "oh, sure, we just wait for it to mutate and then we'll ask the virus fairy for a treatment""

Dude - you cannot create a vaccine against a virus that does not currently exist. You know that, right? It's like trying to hold water in your palms...it doesn't really work. You have to WAIT until the strain that affects humans comes about, and then it's actually relatively easy to come up with an anti-viral.

Now, the main problem is that you cannot really "cure" a viral illness, you can only slow it so that it doesn't kill as many people. As far as I know, there is no way to really "CURE" any viral infection. That's what I've always been told anyway. Bacterial ones, yes...but the virus is much harder. I think it's a matter of keeping host cells from becoming replication sites as opposed to killing the virus.

You can't run your stats off of the 1918 Influenza outbreak. Conditions are not quite the same anymore. It's not a matter of we're not being concerned. We aren't being stupid. There is ZIP that can be done currently.

The strains that are "resistant" over in Asia are STILL not the strains that will infect the mass population. Don't you realize that it's not even that widespread yet for a panic to ensue?

According to WHO 122 cases reported, 63 deaths.

SARS has killed around 800 people worldwide and infected at least 8,400 since it first emerged in November 2002

Now, there have YET to be any human to human cases of bird flu. Without a human to human contraction, there can be no anti-virus or immunization to protect because we don't know what will or won't kill it. So until we have something to make the antivirus again, you're shooting bullets in a dark room and have NO CLUE what the target is supposed to be.


And as far as your death rates, dear friend, they're bogus. Why? Because you're going off of an outbreak from nearly a century ago. Medicine and our ability to produce certain kinds of drugs has improved immensely. So, saying 50% of those infected will die is stupid since there is nothing to base it off of as a fact. Speculations? Yes. But look where speculation got us with SARS.

It's best to just not worry so much about it. What is this worrying and whining going to do to add one single day, one hour to YOUR life? Nothing. If you can't do anything by worrying, do something productive other than trying to cause panic on the board by saying half of us are going to die. There's no basis for it.